Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Economist who predicted Great Recession forsees a 36-month recession, zero GDP growth in 2010
Nouriel Roubini, the New York economist who predicted the current economic downturn, sees a Dow 5000 and no reason for investors to buy now despite the low level of individual stock prices.
He told CNBC:
He said that while U.S. GDP next year could be zero, global GDP could dip into negative territory.
"We could end up ... with a 36-month recession, that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression," Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a more severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.
Roubini listed a litany of negative omens: Capex spending down 20-30 percent for investment grade companies, self-perpetuating deflation, all making a bad situation worse.
"If you expect prices to be lower tomorrow, why would you buy today?", asked Roubini. He says it's easier to break out of am inflationary cycle than a deflationary one, and while a year of deflation "is okay," longer would be "a disaster."
We are 15 months into the Great Recession, Roubini said.