Sunday, October 12, 2008

Don't jump into stock market tomorrow; Ramsey's advice has cost you 27.4% of your holdings

It may be tempting if the financial markets jump tomorrow to sink your money into various mutual funds and single stocks. Japanese and Australian financial markets are rallying Monday there after weekend action by G-7 nations and the Federal Reserve.

Don't act yet.

If you want your investment to be worth more at the beginning of the new year, then you'd be best to hold your money out of the stock market until then and get with a certified financial adviser.

I'm no expert, but I called the latest downturn as earlier blog posts will show. And I called out financial guru Dave Ramsey for telling people on NewsChannel 5 last month to put their money into growth mutual funds and all was safe in the market.

Then, the stock market was trading over 11,600 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Now it is at 8451.

Here is what will happen for the rest of the year. The market will bounce up and down below 9,500. But OPEC countries will meet Nov. 13 to sharply curtail production and dramatically boost the price of oil in time for winter here and the need for heating oil. That will make the markets drop.

It will then recover some. But initial reports on the Christmas buying season will show incredibly weak activity, forcing the markets down again. Following Christmas, investors will scramble to sell their stocks and take their profits. That's because Obama will have won the presidency and plans to raise capital gains taxes.

Yes, Obama's actions would not change the tax code until 2010. But not enough investors will realize that. So the value of your investment tomorrow will probably be less or on par with the value on Jan. 1, 2009.

The first quarter of 2009 will bring:

* Weaker corporate earnings and more layoffs, deflation and failure of the bailout plans passed in 2008.

* A sharp drop in sales tax collections, dramatically affecting states without a state income tax like Tennessee and Florida.

* State and municipal budget cuts across the country that will hurt people and families in need.

* Skyrocketing personal bankruptcies, triggering a negative chain reaction among banks holding credit card debt of Americans.

* Higher local property taxes.

All these factors mean the market will struggle to make much progress initially in the new year.

So be careful. Get with a certified financial adviser like the one I have. My adviser and I don't always agree on the future of the markets. But I agree with him that investing has become an entirely new field. What worked before is not going to work now. Mutual funds are instruments of the past in the way brokerage houses peddle them.

A certified financial planner can point you to those investment vehicles of the future and away from bad, one-size-fits-all advice from TV and radio talking heads.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

What a load of crap....

Anonymous said...

It's now December 1st. Opec has not sharply curtailed output.

billyblue in Colorado